Fire RileTier 1
at Apex DTR Store champs
decks
24
(54.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
97
49-43-5
overall winrate
53.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1326
· range 1113–1633
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1263
Q3 1393
1633
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 18 | 10-7-1 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 58.8% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 37.4% | -5.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 58.0% | +4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +5.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 36.3% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.6% | +7.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.2% | +12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.4% | -8.2 |
Decklists · 24 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 30 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 6 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Inert Sword, Merlin, Kingslayer. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Incapacitate, Sword of Seeking.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 18.
Inert Sword
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 15.
Merlin, Kingslayer
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 20.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 12.
Merlin, Memory Thief
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 20.
The Majestic Spirit
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 30 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 20.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 16.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 15.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 18.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 30 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 12.
Show all 187 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 167 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.27 | 3 | 11 | 8 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.27 | 10 | 2 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.23 | 11 | 4 | 5 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.20 | 10 | 4 | 5 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fireball | +0.20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.20 | 7 | 1 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.17 | 11 | 6 | 10 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.17 | 10 | 5 | 9 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.13 | 10 | 6 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.13 | 4 | 8 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.13 | 13 | 9 | 6 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.13 | 7 | 11 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.13 | 8 | 12 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.13 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.10 | 0 | 3 | 27 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.10 | 4 | 7 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.10 | 8 | 5 | 15 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.10 | 10 | 7 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.10 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.10 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | +0.10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.07 | 6 | 8 | 9 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.07 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 26 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.07 | 10 | 12 | 7 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.07 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.07 | 4 | 6 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.07 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.07 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.07 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.07 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| False Step | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Manaflare Barrage | -0.07 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.07 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | +0.07 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.03 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.03 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.03 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.03 | 6 | 7 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.03 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 4 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.03 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.03 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.03 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 9 | 9 | 12 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 10 | 10 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |